January 10, 2025 03:45 GMT
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper On A Subdued Pre-US Payrolls Friday
AUSSIE BONDS
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -4.0) are cheaper and hovering near Sydney session lows on a subdued pre-US payroll Friday.
- Outside of the previously outlined household spending, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Cash US tsys are slightly richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest gains. Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are in the rear-view mirror.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -16bps.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
- The bills strip is -1 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (118%), with the probability of a February cut at 75% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
- Monday, the local calendar will see Melbourne Institute Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements data.
- AOFM Bond issuance will resume next week, with A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond to be sold on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond on Friday.
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