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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Cheaper On Local Political Matters, But Off Worst Levels
JGB futures moved lower during the Tokyo morning, with domestic equities pushing higher in the wake of Japan’s ruling coalition tightening its grip on power in the weekend’s upper house elections, which will allow PM Kishida to continue to push forward his idea of modern capitalism, while participants also continue to speculate on the future shape of Japanese defence and monetary policy. Press reports noted that Kishida is set to conduct a cabinet reshuffle in August or September, with subsequent comments from Kishida pointing to a reshuffle that will focus on party unity. He also noted that there will be lively debate on constitutional changes in the Autumn, while flagging imminent talks on fiscal measures to combat inflation (which will seemingly be based on “flexible” use of the country’s budget reserves).
- This mix of domestic political matters, coupled with wider weakness in global core fixed income markets in the wake of Friday’s U.S. NFP print, has allowed the space to cheapen.
- Elsewhere, comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda reaffirmed the Bank’s stance, while the latest Sakura report saw the BoJ upgrade its assessment of 9 areas of the country, while the other 2 saw their assessment remain as was.
- Futures last deal -28, off worst levels of the session as the wider equity sphere comes under some pressure (although the Nikkei 225 outperforms post-elections, last +1.2%, albeit shy of best levels). Cash JGBs are little changed to ~4bp cheaper across the curve, bear steepening (although 7s were softer than directly surrounding lines on the weakness in futures). Note that the 10-Year JGB yield was limited by the upper boundary of the BoJ’s permitted -/+0.25% trading band during the Tokyo morning. Swaps out to 10s were generally wider on the day (excluding 7s given the futures-related weakness), while 20+-Year swap spreads were narrower on the day.
- Looking ahead, PPI data and 5-Year JGB supply headline Tuesday’s domestic docket.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.