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Cheaper On The Day But Slightly Richer After CPI Monthly Miss, Retail Sales Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -3.5) have strengthened slightly since the release of CPI Monthly data.

  • January CPI inflation printed below expectations holding steady at 3.4% y/y, with ex-volatile items & holiday travel dipping 0.1pp to 4.1% and the trimmed mean 0.2pp to 3.8%.
  • The first month of the quarter doesn’t include updates for the services component.
  • RBA Governor Bullock noted recently that the help from falling goods inflation is probably behind us. January goods inflation was only 0.1pp lower at 3.1% y/y and non-tradeables 0.1pp higher at 0.9%.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 2bps higher at -13bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 2bps higher on the day, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing flat to -1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings on the day. A cumulative 37bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Retail Sales and Private Sector Credit for January and Private Capital Expenditure for Q4.
  • TCorp issued A$600mn of its 1.75% 20 March 2034, 4.75% 20 February 2035 and 4.25% 20 February 2036 Benchmark bonds via Yieldbroker tender.
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