CANADA MAY RETAILS -0.8% VS FORECAST -0.6%, PRIOR +0.6%

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MNI: CANADA JUN INDUSTRIAL PRICES +0.0% MOM; EX-ENERGY +0.1%

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Cheaper, US Tsy Yields Continue to Push Higher

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are cheaper (YM -8.0 & XM -9.0) as US Tsy yields push higher on the back of the much stronger-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing Index. After the bell, 2-year and 10-year US Tsy yields were 9-10bp higher and respectively 23bp and 21bp higher than Wednesday’s close.

  • Cash ACGBs are 7-9bp cheaper with the 3/10 curve 2bp flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bp.
  • Swap rates are 7-8bp higher.
  • The bills strip is steeper with pricing -3 to -9.
  • RBA dated OIS is 1-3bp firmer across meetings.
  • Attention will turn to the RBA Minutes for April today. After the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% with forward guidance shifting dovishly, the market will be keen to ascertain what could prompt the RBA to resume tightening, particularly ahead of the 26 April release of Q1 CPI.
  • Further afield, China is scheduled to deliver its March data dump and Q1’23 GDP today. This will provide an update on how the Chinese economy is travelling after the lockdown rebound.
  • Participants will continue to be on alert for the launch of the new ACGB Dec-34 after the AOFM revealed on Friday that it aims to issue the line via syndication at some point this week.
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