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CHF Remains Notable Underperformer Amid Tight DXY Range

FOREX
  • The Swiss Franc is the poorest performing currency on Tuesday, helping EURCHF (+0.45%) rise above the key upside level and bull trigger at 0.9788. The pair printed a high of 0.9814 during US hours, the highest level since June 2023.
  • A sustained break of this level, along with 0.9020 in USDCHF (+0.51%) could unlock the next stage of weakness for the CHF after last week's surprise SNB rate cut, at which the bank became the first in G10 to ease monetary policy after the post-pandemic tightening cycle.
  • We highlighted yesterday that while the AUDUSD technical theme remains bearish, exponential moving average indicators appear positive for AUDCHF, and the dovish SNB combined with the overall buoyant backdrop for global equities could point to further strength ahead for the cross.
  • Importantly, we do have Australian data overnight, with February CPI expected to tick up to 3.5% Y/y on Wednesday. The data precedes Thursday’s February retail sales data, and for both releases, attention will be paid following last week’s stellar jobs report.
  • Elsewhere in G10, major pairs are showing very moderate adjustments, with the USD index marginally in the green approaching the APAC crossover. While USDJPY remains just 0.10% higher on the day, the pair has bounced 40 pips off the overnight lows to 151.60. The slow grind higher comes in the face of further verbal rhetoric from MOF officials denouncing speculative moves in the yen. USDJPY remains very close to the significant multi-decade resistance point at 151.91/95.
  • Focus for Wednesday will turn to Spanish CPI, which kicks off the Eurozone inflation schedule, previewed by MNI here. Later in the session, Fed’s Waller is due to speak about monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York, where a Q&A is expected.
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