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Chicago Business Barometer™- December Unrevised

The December Chicago Business Barometer™ was unrevised at 36.9, the lowest since May 2024.

The December Chicago Business Barometer™ was unrevised at 36.9, the lowest since May 2024, as a result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation. 

  • The Barometer was higher than previously estimated in the first half of the year while the second half of the year – Q3 in particular – was weaker than previously estimated.
  • August and September saw the largest downward revisions, with the Barometer revised lower 1.7 points to 44.4 (from 46.1) and to 44.9 (from 46.6) respectively. April recorded the largest upward revision of +2.0 points to 39.9 (from 37.9).
  • The Barometer has remained below 50 for 13 consecutive months and, excluding November 2023, it has been in contraction territory since September 2022. Q3 showed a faster pace of contraction that extended to Q4, with the Barometer revised lower to 44.6 in Q3 (-1.4 points) and to 39.3 in Q4 (-0.3 points). In contrast, Q1 was revised higher to 44.3 (+0.5 points) and to 41.2 in Q2 (+1.0 point).
  • Employment saw the largest downwards revision in December of 2.6 points to 46.8, followed by Order Backlogs (-1.1 points).
  • Supplier Deliveries was also revised lower by 1.0 point.
  • Production was revised 1.0 points higher to 35.1, while New Orders rose a marginal 0.1 points in December.
  • Prices Paid remained high, with the Prices Paid Indicator revised up 2.6 points to 62.9.
  • Inventories was revised 1.7 points higher in December.

Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the US Census X-13 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.

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The December Chicago Business Barometer™ was unrevised at 36.9, the lowest since May 2024, as a result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation. 

  • The Barometer was higher than previously estimated in the first half of the year while the second half of the year – Q3 in particular – was weaker than previously estimated.
  • August and September saw the largest downward revisions, with the Barometer revised lower 1.7 points to 44.4 (from 46.1) and to 44.9 (from 46.6) respectively. April recorded the largest upward revision of +2.0 points to 39.9 (from 37.9).
  • The Barometer has remained below 50 for 13 consecutive months and, excluding November 2023, it has been in contraction territory since September 2022. Q3 showed a faster pace of contraction that extended to Q4, with the Barometer revised lower to 44.6 in Q3 (-1.4 points) and to 39.3 in Q4 (-0.3 points). In contrast, Q1 was revised higher to 44.3 (+0.5 points) and to 41.2 in Q2 (+1.0 point).
  • Employment saw the largest downwards revision in December of 2.6 points to 46.8, followed by Order Backlogs (-1.1 points).
  • Supplier Deliveries was also revised lower by 1.0 point.
  • Production was revised 1.0 points higher to 35.1, while New Orders rose a marginal 0.1 points in December.
  • Prices Paid remained high, with the Prices Paid Indicator revised up 2.6 points to 62.9.
  • Inventories was revised 1.7 points higher in December.

Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the US Census X-13 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.

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