Chicago Business Barometer™ – Tumbled to 56.0 in June

Key Points – June 2022 Report

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, tumbled to the lowest since August 2020 in June, giving back last month’s recovery.

• All main indicators decreased except for employment, which hit the highest level since November 2021.
• Production slowed 5.7 points in June, 4.7 points below the 12-month average. Firms cited waning demand and slowing production.
• New Orders saw the largest decrease this month, dropping 9.8 points to 49.9, the lowest in two years. A quarter of firms saw fewer new orders received in June.
• Order Backlogs saw the second-largest decline, falling 9.4 points to a 19-month low of 55.2. As new orders fell, backlogs saw a substantial decrease.
• Employment grew 4.6 points to 50.7, the highest since November last year as firms saw relatively stable employment conditions for the month.
• Supplier Deliveries edged down 0.2 points to 69.1. This was again the lowest since November 2020 as deliveries remained slow and lead times lengthened. Offshore supply lead times were reported at double that of domestic, however, some materials became substantially more available due to lower demand.
• Inventories dipped 5.2 points to 63.9, coming off last month’s near 50-year high. With some supply chain issues easing, pressures to stock up saw slight relief.

SPECIAL QUESTION

This month we asked firms “with employment costs increasing, are you looking at slowing hiring in the upcoming months?”. The majority (43.9%) said no, whilst only 14.6% of respondents said yes. A further 17.1% were somewhat looking to slow hiring, and 24.4% were unsure, as growth outlooks remained uncertain.