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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
May's Chicago Fed National Activity Index showed US economic activity was slightly below the historical trend in the month, at -0.15 vs +0.14 in April (a zero value is associated with growth at its historical trend).
- With April revised up from +.07, the May "beat" vs -0.10 expected in the Bloomberg survey was nullified, but in any case there was little reaction: the CFNAI isn't a market-moving data point as it is based on data that has previously been released, but serves as a useful summary of growth drivers.
- 39 of 85 individual indicators made positive contributions, with 46 making negative contributions; 38 improved (of which 11 made negative contributions to May anyway) and 47 deteriorated vs April.
- Production was weak (-0.09 vs +0.18 prior), with employment -0.03 (vs +0.07 prior) likewise softer; conversely personal consumption/housing edged up to +0.02 from -0.01 prior, with sales/orders/inventories to -0.05 vs -0.10 prior.
- From an inflation perspective, the 3-month moving average index (CFNAI-MA3) is seen by the Chicago Fed as increasing the likelihood of a "period of sustained increasing inflation" if it's been above +0.70 more than 2 years into an economic expansion: that figure has been below zero since October 2022.
- Overall it's a report that shows modest weakness in economic activity in the past 4 months, but off late 2022 lows - with inflation pressures likely to be subsiding as well.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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