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Chicago Fed National Index Surprise Decline Led By Production & Consumption

US DATA
  • Despite being a composite of known measures, the Chicago Fed national activity index came in weaker than expected in August at -0.16 (cons +0.10) after a downward revised +0.07 (initial +0.12).
  • It meant a return to negative readings for the index, with only three positive figures in the eight months of the year to date.
  • Recall: “A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units)”
  • The main two drivers for the latest decline came from production-related indicators (contributed –0.02 in Aug from +0.12 in July) and the personal consumption and housing category (-0.08 in Aug from +0.03 in July).
  • Elsewhere, there was little change from the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories (-0.03 after -0.04) and employment-related indicators (unchanged at -0.04).

Source: Chicago Fed

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