Free Trial

Chicago Survey Finds Half of Firms Pencilling in 2023 Recession

US DATA
MNI (London)

Chicago Business BarometerTM asked firms in January "Do your future business plans foresee a recession?"

  • 30.1% of asked firms anticipate a recession in H1, whilst a lower 27.8% expect a recession in H2 2023.
  • Only 13.9% do not expect a US recession and a substantial 27.8% remain unsure. Firms flagged risks from weak consumer demand outlooks as a key growth issue.
  • After expanding by +2.9% q/q in the advance Q4 GDP data, the US could be positioned to avoid recession this year, despite signals such as the inversion of the Treasury yield curve.
  • The very tight labor market may end up seeing a decline in vacant positions, rather than a wave of layoffs.
  • Yet slowing growth momentum on the back of weaker consumer spending, stagnating home sales, and declining industrial production point towards a looming downturn.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.