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MNI: US HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES ANNOUNCES HEARING ON SVB, SIG

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Chicago Survey Finds Half of Firms Pencilling in 2023 Recession

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Chicago Business BarometerTM asked firms in January "Do your future business plans foresee a recession?"

  • 30.1% of asked firms anticipate a recession in H1, whilst a lower 27.8% expect a recession in H2 2023.
  • Only 13.9% do not expect a US recession and a substantial 27.8% remain unsure. Firms flagged risks from weak consumer demand outlooks as a key growth issue.
  • After expanding by +2.9% q/q in the advance Q4 GDP data, the US could be positioned to avoid recession this year, despite signals such as the inversion of the Treasury yield curve.
  • The very tight labor market may end up seeing a decline in vacant positions, rather than a wave of layoffs.
  • Yet slowing growth momentum on the back of weaker consumer spending, stagnating home sales, and declining industrial production point towards a looming downturn.

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Chicago Business BarometerTM asked firms in January "Do your future business plans foresee a recession?"

  • 30.1% of asked firms anticipate a recession in H1, whilst a lower 27.8% expect a recession in H2 2023.
  • Only 13.9% do not expect a US recession and a substantial 27.8% remain unsure. Firms flagged risks from weak consumer demand outlooks as a key growth issue.
  • After expanding by +2.9% q/q in the advance Q4 GDP data, the US could be positioned to avoid recession this year, despite signals such as the inversion of the Treasury yield curve.
  • The very tight labor market may end up seeing a decline in vacant positions, rather than a wave of layoffs.
  • Yet slowing growth momentum on the back of weaker consumer spending, stagnating home sales, and declining industrial production point towards a looming downturn.