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Chile Central Bank Review – March 2022 - Dovish Tilt

CHILE
  • Yesterday the BCCh board decided to raise the policy rate by 150bps to 7.00% in a unanimous decision. The outcome was at the lower end of expectations with the modal forecast looking for a greater 200bp hike.
  • The statement cites the invasion of Ukraine intensifying uncertainty and although local asset prices have had a limited reaction, local uncertainty indicators have risen.
  • Additionally, the board displays caution over the growth outlook by stating “the performance of domestic demand in the fourth quarter, plus data available from the beginning of the year, point to the economy already being on a downward path from last year’s high levels of spending.”
  • The committee notes that the short-term inflation outlook has been revised upward again, bringing annual CPI closer to 10% and they will continue to monitor two-year inflation expectations that “have remained above 3% for several months”.
  • Attention turns to today’s March Monetary Policy Report – released at 1300GMT/0800ET. This will contain the details of the central scenario and related sensitivities and risks, together with their implications for the future evolution of the MPR.
  • The Statement notes that if the assumptions in the new report prove correct, “future increases in the MPR would be smaller than those of recent quarters.”
  • Link to full statement pdf here: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/3379419/pr29032022.pdf/fdbda8d1-6017-1a9a-ebd9-0fa66aef1120?t=1648590083337
  • The minutes of this meeting will be released at 8:30 local time, April 13. The following meeting/decision is scheduled for May 5.
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