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CHILE: CIBC Forecasting Four Further 25BP BCCh Cuts

CHILE
  • According to CIBC, the latest BCCh minutes highlighted weak consumption and reduced risks of further inflationary persistence in the medium term, confirming the central bank’s plan of a faster return to a neutral level of the MPR.
  • CIBC anticipate four more 25bps rate cuts before the end of the cycle, and expect the BCCh to implement them before the end of Q2 2025 rather than spread over the next 15 months (no change in magnitude).
  • They note that the market is already pricing real rates below the CB’s neutral estimate two years ahead, limiting the possibility of dovish surprises, while CIBC anticipate investors will pay closer attention to intrinsic factors, and take refuge on those assets relatively shielded from US electoral noise.
  • Price action today confirms CIBC’s view that USD/CLP will maintain its downward path, expecting the pair to trade within the 900-920 range.
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