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China Diesel Exports Forecast Below Late 2022 Levels: FGE

OIL PRODUCTS

The next batch of China’s diesel exports quotas will be “less generous and exports won’t return to levels from late 2022 according to FGE.

  • China’s diesel exports are forecast up 100k b/d y/y at 310kb/d from June to October but below the levels from November and December according to FGE.
  • Gasoline exports are forecast up about 80kb/d y/y at about 320kb/d. Low US gasoline stocks could support imports. “We expect a stronger pull of gasoline and blendstocks from Asia to the West”
  • Asia supplies are tight due to heavy refinery maintenance in 2Q 2023 and firm domestic gasoline demand in China.
  • Gasoline cracks spreads are holding steady with the European spread having recovered from recent lows of 9.6$/bbl on 17 Feb up to around 12.5$/bbl.
    • US 321 crack down -0.4$/bbl at 35.34$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 32.58$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -1$/bbl at 40.85$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.3$/bbl at 12.54$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down -1$/bbl at 26$/bbl

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