MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, June 20

NORGES BANK HEAD: EITHER HIKE OR EARLIER CUT POSSIBLE

NORGES BANK HEAD SEES POLICY RATE AT 4.5% TO END YEAR

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY18 Bln Via OMO Thu; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY20 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THU

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1192 Thu; -1.93% Y/Y

IFO Upwardly Revises 2024 Growth Forecast by 0.2pp to +0.4% Y/Y

NOK Little Changed Ahead of Norges Bank; Hold In Rates Expected

Intermediate Goods Deflation Continues to Fade in May PPI

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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China Diesel Exports Forecast Below Late 2022 Levels: FGE

OIL PRODUCTS

The next batch of China’s diesel exports quotas will be “less generous and exports won’t return to levels from late 2022 according to FGE.

  • China’s diesel exports are forecast up 100k b/d y/y at 310kb/d from June to October but below the levels from November and December according to FGE.
  • Gasoline exports are forecast up about 80kb/d y/y at about 320kb/d. Low US gasoline stocks could support imports. “We expect a stronger pull of gasoline and blendstocks from Asia to the West”
  • Asia supplies are tight due to heavy refinery maintenance in 2Q 2023 and firm domestic gasoline demand in China.
  • Gasoline cracks spreads are holding steady with the European spread having recovered from recent lows of 9.6$/bbl on 17 Feb up to around 12.5$/bbl.
    • US 321 crack down -0.4$/bbl at 35.34$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 32.58$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -1$/bbl at 40.85$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.3$/bbl at 12.54$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down -1$/bbl at 26$/bbl
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