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CHINA: Next Week’s Data Preview.

CHINA
EM BulletAPACChinaEmerging Market NewsBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • Next week's data may give insight as to whether the impact of the stimulus is filtering through to the economic data. 
  • Aggregate financing YTD and New Yuan denominated loans will give a snapshot of demand for credit, a measure of individuals and company's willingness to invest.
  • With stimulus measures predominantly focused on the property sector and the encouraging data out on new home sales; it is anticipated that both of these releases will be strong with current surveys suggesting a meaningful increase. 
  • Of interest also will be New and Used home prices month on month.  There has been a multiyear decline for the property sector and with buyers emerging post stimulus, chances are we may start to see some form of bounce for property prices.
  • The other two key data releases will be Industrial Production and Retail Sales. 
  • Industrial production has been quite resilient given the state of the economy, oscillating around 5% YoY for the monthly figure.  Market surveys suggest this could rise to +5.7% for October.
  • Retail sales has hovered around a 3% expansion month on month for much of 2024 and the market will be looking for signs that stimulus is breathing confidence into the consumer.  Market expectations are retail sales could rise +3.8% for October with perhaps a chance of it being better than forecast.
  • Finally, we will see property investment YTD which current forecasts will see it remain firmly negative. 
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  • Next week's data may give insight as to whether the impact of the stimulus is filtering through to the economic data. 
  • Aggregate financing YTD and New Yuan denominated loans will give a snapshot of demand for credit, a measure of individuals and company's willingness to invest.
  • With stimulus measures predominantly focused on the property sector and the encouraging data out on new home sales; it is anticipated that both of these releases will be strong with current surveys suggesting a meaningful increase. 
  • Of interest also will be New and Used home prices month on month.  There has been a multiyear decline for the property sector and with buyers emerging post stimulus, chances are we may start to see some form of bounce for property prices.
  • The other two key data releases will be Industrial Production and Retail Sales. 
  • Industrial production has been quite resilient given the state of the economy, oscillating around 5% YoY for the monthly figure.  Market surveys suggest this could rise to +5.7% for October.
  • Retail sales has hovered around a 3% expansion month on month for much of 2024 and the market will be looking for signs that stimulus is breathing confidence into the consumer.  Market expectations are retail sales could rise +3.8% for October with perhaps a chance of it being better than forecast.
  • Finally, we will see property investment YTD which current forecasts will see it remain firmly negative.