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China Re-exports Could Become Normal with More Contracted Volumes

LNG

China re-exports of LNG could become the new normal as more LNG contracts come into effect in the coming years according to Bloomberg. Over-contracted flexible volumes are set to support the move to a swing supplier.

  • Total contracted volumes are expected to be 1.5m metric tons higher than LNG demand in 2024, assuming ten year average weather. Contracted volume of 74.3m tons is to exceed LNG import demand of 72.8m tons in 2024 according to BNEF.
  • About 15m tons of LNG deals signed since 2022 can possibly be diverted to other markets with contracts based on FOB terms.
  • Chinese LNG re-export activity has picked up this year and is likely to grow through this winter, amid global volatility and arbitrage opportunities according to ICIS.
  • Warm weather and weak economy are limiting domestic demand while high inventories are also boosting cargo diversions.
  • CNPC and CNOOC have resold at least five cargoes for November delivery and are reselling more for December and January delivery according to Bloomberg.


Source: Bloomberg

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