China Weekly Oil Summary: 2024 Crude Imports Forecast at 11m b/d

EXCLUSIVE: China’s demand for crude oil imports will increase marginally in 2024 from this year’s 11 million bpd as economic growth firms and the government adds infrastructure stimulus, but this poses little significant upside risk to world oil prices, a leading China energy expert has told MNI.

• Kpler expects China crude imports to slip in Q4 from October levels of ~11mn bpd driven by weaker refinery runs.
• China’s state-owned refinery run rates fell in the week to the lowest since May 25 at 76.04% of capacity. Teapots in Shandong province cut runs again to the lowest since May 2022 at 56.57% of capacity.
• China independent refiners to lower runs by 5%-10% in November m/m, to 4.5m to 4.75mbpd, before a further 3% reduction in December.
• Profit margins at China’s independent refiners turned negative in late October for the first time since early January driven by higher crude prices and weakening demand for diesel and gasoline according to JLC.

• Planned refined oil product exports from China are scheduled to be 2.73m mt in November, down 26% on October, according to OilChem citing shipping schedules.
• China refined product exports are nearing 90% of the current quota batch according to Kpler with no further batch expected to be announced this year.
• POLICY: China still has huge potential for economic growth as it still has a late-mover advantage, continuous reforms are needed for greatest benefit, said Zhang Junkuo, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council. “The current weak recovery cannot simply be attributed to a decline in growth potential,” said Zhang.
• POLICY: China's Consumer Price Index fell by 0.2% in October to mark a three-month low, while the Producer Price Index -- a measure of factory-gate inflation -- dropped further, data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
• POLICY: China's exports decreased further in October, falling 6.4% to mark sixth straight monthly fall.