China Weekly Oil Summary: Demand Growth to Slow in 2024

China’s oil demand growth is forecast to slow 3.3% in 2024 to growth of about 500kb/d according to China International Capital Corp via Bloomberg.

• China’s refining capacity is expected to rise by 2.7% y/y in 2024 to 961mn mt/year or 19.3mn bpd according to CNPC's Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI).
• China gasoline demand is forecast to slip in March according to OilChem, likely to weigh on prices.
• China’s refined oil exports are planned at 4.2 million tonnes in March – up 16% m/m according to OilChem.
• Crude oil storage capacity utilisation rates at independent refineries in Shandong were 43.7% in the week to March 1, according to OilChem.
• EXCLUSIVE: China will likely set its inflation target at around 3% y/y for 2024, despite the real level likely printing closer to about 1% due to sluggish demand, which will boost the chance of further central bank policy action, advisors and economists told MNI.
• POLICY: China's Caixin manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 in February, up 0.1 point from January, staying in the expansionary zone above the breakeven 50 mark for a fourth month, driven by pro-growth policies, the financial publisher said.
• POLICY: China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index declined by 0.1 point to 49.1 in February, remaining in the contractionary zone below the breakeven 50 mark for the fifth month, amid the traditional off-season due to Chinese New Year holiday, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.