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China’s Weak Diesel Demand Squeezing Oil Outlook: Reuters

OIL PRODUCTS

China’s falling diesel consumption is weighing on domestic fuel demand, Reuters said.

  • The growth of LNG-powered trucks and sluggish economic activity are cutting the appetite for diesel.
  • In a Reuters survey, four of five analysts told Reuters that they expected H2 diesel demand to fall between 2-7% annually to between 3.81m-4.67m b/d.
  • Gasoline and diesel make up 40% of China’s oil demand, but LNG trucks are eroding their use and with growing EV uptake, transport fuels are nearing their peak.
  • FGE forecasts LNG trucks will displace 110k b/d of diesel demand in 2024 and 120k b/d in 2025.
  • Gasoline demand is expected to growth 1.2% in China in H2 to 3.45m b/d, Rystad said.
  • Jet fuel is the main growth driver, likely rising by 8-15% this year – around 870k-1.04m b/d.
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