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Chinese Gasoline Demand to Peak 2025 with 170mn Tons


China’s gasoline demand is expected to peak at 170mn tons at around 2025, Qiu Xuan, a researcher with PetroChina Planning & Engineering Institute, said, cited by Bloomberg.

  • Gasoline demand will sharply drop to 50mn tons by 2040, due to the country’s aggressive penetration by EVs, rising fuel efficiency and falling per car mileage.
  • Diesel demand in the road freight sector has already peaked and is forecasted to decline by 30mn tons by 2030, from 120mn tons currently, as LNG trucks will displace over 20% of road freight demand.
  • Jet-fuel consumption is expected to peak at 90mn tons by 2040, up from 37mn tons expected for 2023.
  • Demand for transport oil products will peak at 390m tons by 2025-2030.
  • Chinese refineries will run at no more than 60% capacity by 2030, with surplus refining capacity rising to 300m tons/yr.

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