CHP Leader Kilicdaroglu Ahead Of Erdogan In Latest Poll

Following on from the earlier bullet on the opposition's efforts to unite around a single candidate (see 0841GMT bullet), the latest polling from Artibir shows Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the main opposition centre-left Republican People's Party, leading incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a hypothetical first-round election.

• Artibir poll: Presidential election with possible joint candidates: Kilicdaroglu (CHP): 53% Erdogan (AKP): 47%, Fieldwork: 14-24 December 2022 Sample size: 1,500
• Opinion polling carried out in recent months has shown that two other potential CHP candidates - Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas - both garner more support than Kilicdaroglu. However, Imamoglu's jail sentence handed down in December could bar his potential candidacy.
• Another major factor in the ability of the nascent opposition alliance to effectively challenge Erdogan will be the participation (or not) of the minority Kurdish-interest People's Democratic Party (HDP). On 5 Jan, the Constitutional Court delivered a ruling that froze significant financial aid to the HDP, and in a future ruling could bar the party from standing. The loss of the third-largest party in parliament would be a notable blow to the opposition's chances of ousting Erdogan.