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CIBC Ahead Of CPI

CANADA
  • Released Wed, March data should show the peak for Canadian CPI inflation but it’s likely to be 6.3% Y/Y (consensus 6.1%), the highest since early 1991.
  • The key drivers are likely energy, food and housing costs but CIBC watch for signs of a broadening in pressures, including in the average of the three key core measures.
  • US goods inflation slowed in March but that reflected lower used car prices, which aren’t tracked in the Canadian CPI basket.
  • Further ahead, CIBC see a trade-off between homeonwers’ replacement costs “decelerating fairly quickly later in the year” as lumber prices cool and higher rate quell housing demand are offset by inflationary impacts from the ongoing war in Ukraine and China’s Covid-19 lockdowns.

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