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CIBC Calls For Further 25bp Hike In January After Jobs Report

CANADA
  • The 104K increase in employment blew well past consensus for a paltry 5K gain. While this strength wasn’t mirrored in actual working hours due to increased staff absenteeism, the jobs gain and tick down in the u/e rate sees CIBC now expect further 25bp hike at the January BoC meeting.
  • The composition of job gains was also strong, with most positions coming in the full time (+84.5K) and paid employee (+115K) categories.
  • The u/e rate of 5.0%, down from 5.1% in the prior month, is close to the record low of 4.9% earlier in 2022 and a cause of concern for the BoC.
  • Wage growth remained firm at 5.2% Y/Y, although that represented a slight deceleration relative to the prior month.
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