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CIBC expect swing-voter Broadbent to vote to keep rates on hold in November

BOE
  • "We anticipate that despite the Bailey warnings the bank will hold rates at 0.1% in November. Expect a split vote, likely 5:4, underlining the knife edge scale of the event."
  • "We would view BoE deputy Governor Broadbent as being a key swing MPC member. Several members have suggested the need to see evidence of the effects of the ending of the jobs support mechanism (furlough), prior to acting, and thus we would expect Broadbent to be in this grouping."
  • "Should the bank hold in November, as we assume, the key piece of language in the statement will be any reference to ''considerable uncertainties remain.... Such an inclusion may preclude the bank looking to tighten in December. If the phrase is omitted and the labour market data holds up in the immediate aftermath of the ending of the jobs support mechanism, we would then expect a 15bp hike in December with another 25bp in February, taking rates to 0.50%."
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