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CIBC On Inflation Report (Aug 16, 0830ET)

CANADA
  • CIBC see headline CPI slowing from 0.7% to 0.2% M/M (= consensus) which sees the annual rate cool from 8.1 to 7.7% Y/Y (cons 7.6).
  • As in the US, “the slump in gasoline prices will be the major driver” of the move lower, although natural gas rates offset some of that whilst food price inflation has also been lagging the US and could have seen a slight acceleration.
  • Core (ex food & energy) inflation is expected at 0.25% M/M, slowing from 5.3% to 5.0% Y/Y, with policymakers “likely keeping an even closer eye” on it after big revisions to in the BoC’s three core measures (particularly core-common).
  • "If energy prices remain at current levels, headline inflation could fall below 2% before the middle of next year". Ex food/energy inflation "will, however, take longer to return to target due to ongoing supply constraints, such as labour availability in services and supply bottlenecks for goods".
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