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CIBC See Below Consensus CPI Inflation

CANADA
  • CIBC see headline CPI inflation easing from 7.0% to 6.5% Y/Y in Sept (cons 6.8%) on the back of an unadjusted -0.2% M/M decline.
  • The trend in ex food/energy prices is once again likely to be more subdued in Canada than in the US, thanks largely to the differing treatment of shelter costs: homeowner replacement and other housing components of CPI will remain weak M/M as home prices fall and building costs no longer rise.
  • Of the volatile items, gasoline prices were lower in Sept on average, partly offset by higher food prices, but will likely have moved higher in Oct to see headline accelerate again for one month at least.

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