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CIBC See BoC Watching Preferred Core Measures Amidst Weight Changes

CANADA
  • CIBC see headline CPI slowing from 2.7% to 2.5% Y/Y in May.
  • “Ex. food/energy categories could have been boosted a little by changes to the CPI basket weights, which are now placing a higher weight on mortgage interest costs (MIC), masking some of the weakness from sluggish demand.”
  • “As a result, the ex. food/energy group could have accelerated to 0.2% m/m SA. However, the BoC will be more focused on inflation excluding MIC and their core measures, trim and median. Both trim and median will have continued to run around a 2% annualized monthly pace (in SA terms) for the fifth month in a row.”
  • CIBC think that the BoC remains on track to cut rates again in July “with inflationary pressures concentrated in shelter, and demand dampened by still high interest rates as mortgages renew and the rise in the unemployment rate.
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