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CIBC See Core CPI Trend Giving BoC Comfort To Cut As Early As June

CANADA
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  • CIBC forecast CPI inflation of 0.5% M/M (NSA) which sees a moderation from 2.9% to 2.7% Y/Y.
  • “The levelling off in food prices also appears to have played a large role in bringing weaker monthly changes in the BoC’s trim and median measures of core inflation”.
  • “That should be the case again in April, seeing the Y/Y rates of those measures ease further and keeping the 3 and 6-month annualized trends much more subdued than they were last year.”
  • “While headline inflation remains above target, a continuation of the recent soft trend in core measures should provide the BoC the comfort it needs to gradually start reducing interest rates as early as the June meeting.”
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  • CIBC forecast CPI inflation of 0.5% M/M (NSA) which sees a moderation from 2.9% to 2.7% Y/Y.
  • “The levelling off in food prices also appears to have played a large role in bringing weaker monthly changes in the BoC’s trim and median measures of core inflation”.
  • “That should be the case again in April, seeing the Y/Y rates of those measures ease further and keeping the 3 and 6-month annualized trends much more subdued than they were last year.”
  • “While headline inflation remains above target, a continuation of the recent soft trend in core measures should provide the BoC the comfort it needs to gradually start reducing interest rates as early as the June meeting.”