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CIBC Stick To Sept BoC Rate Call Post Retail Sales

CANADA

CIBC sees the BoC are still remaining on track for a 75bp hike in September after today’s retail report showing resilience in June but a weaker July.

  • They note stronger than expected resilience in retail sales with a 1.1% M/M gain “given high inflation, rising interest rates and a shift to service consumption”.
  • Q2 posting strong volume growth of 3.5% annualized supports their call “for robust consumption growth in the quarter”.
  • The advance estimate for a significant 2% decline in July provides “some evidence that the expected shift away from goods consumption might finally materialize more meaningfully”.
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