MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, Sept 11

MNI BRIEF: Cautious Policy Adjustments Eyed - BOJ's Nakagawa

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY210 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1182 WEDS VS 7.1136

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AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

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CIBC & TD: Growth To Slow But Seeing Different Terminal Rates

CANADA
Following a hawkish statement on Jun 1 and arguably a more hawkish speech from Dep Gov Paul Beaudry yesterday, both CIBC and TD keep to past rate paths views as they expect growth to slow ahead.
  • CIBC: We still see rates peaking at 2.5%. The climb in inflation since the April meeting now has the Bank thinking it needs to go above 2.5%, and possibly above 3%. Of course, that will still depend on how the economy performs, and what happens on the inflation front. CIBC see GDP growth slowing in 2H22 to something notably below the BoC forecast.
  • TD: We continue to see a 50bp hike in July and a terminal rate of 3.0% by Jan’23. Risk of 3% coming earlier if it opts for a 50bp hike in Sep but we look for the Bank's tone to soften in the latter half of the year as higher rates start to weigh more broadly on growth figures. We think the Bank's comment about acting more forcefully was meant to telegraph a higher terminal rate rather than a potential 75bp move in July.
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