Citi 1Q24 Preview: Credit Costs, Reorganisation And Revenues To Feature

Citigroup has seen profit and, less so, revenue estimates cut since last results (12-Jan), but the equity has raced ahead +14% (10pp more than US financials index). As the more international of the US banks, and with a major reorganisation underway, results may give less feel for the peers and have more idiosyncratic factors. Credit costs will be closely watched (C US)(S5FINL)

• Key trading lines: FICC is seen down around 12%, equities closer to -4% but the bigger picture will be progress on cost cuts (and job losses) here. Citi’s sprawling empire is being trimmed again and the capital absorbed in the trading units put them in the firing line.
• Revenue outlook: the positive impact of Fed rates staying higher for longer will be less keenly felt here (vs. BoA or Wells Fargo) due to Citi’s international businesses but positive card spending and IB fees could offer some offset.
• Credit costs were higher-than-expected at the last results and, with a big FDIC charge and restructuring costs, CET1 dropped to 12.1% (was lower q/q and y/y). This could be the big delta in these numbers and give information for Wells Fargo, US regionals more widely, and BoA.

Results due at 1300 (London time) with conf call at 1600, available here: https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/citigroup/webina...