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Citi: Below Consensus For Payrolls But Otherwise Hawkish

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Citi note that while risks are again tilted towards stronger payrolls growth after 14 consecutive months of upside surprises relative to consensus, they see a slowing in June to a still-strong 170k.
  • It’s based on a slight increase in initial jobless claims in the first weeks of June, which suggests somewhat less than usual summer hiring relative to seasonal factors, with June payrolls also expecting this substantial rise in non-seasonally adjusted June employment.
  • However, other elements should still point to a very tight labor market, including a decline in the u/e rate to 3.6% (with risks of 3.5%) and AHE rising 0.4% M/M.
  • All elements of the June employment report should be strong enough to keep the Fed raising rates in July, with more favorable employment seasonal factors beyond June also supporting our base case for another hike in September.
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