MNI BRIEF: Canada Debt Management Strategy Highlights

CANADA BUDGETS 2024-25 DEFICIT OF CAD39.8B OR 1.3% OF GDP

MNI BRIEF: BOC's Macklem - Inflation Moving In Right Direction

MNI INTERVIEW: IMF's Adrian Warns Of Inflation Risk To Markets

MNI EM China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 16

MNI BRIEF: Industrial, Service Rebound Buoys China's Q1 GDP

AUDUSD Falls To Fresh 5-Month Low, USDMXN Rises Above 17.00

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Greece, Italy, UK, Germany Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Portugal, EU Auction Wednesday

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Citi Expect Unchanged BCRP, Goldman See Close Call Decision

PERU
  • Citi forecast BCRP to keep the policy interest rate unchanged in their first decision of 2023.
    • Inflation surprised on the upside in December but remained below last June's peak. Citi recognize this inflation surprise puts pressure on the Central Bank to consider the possibility of another hike, but also realize these pressures are supply driven, influenced by the ongoing social unrest, and should be short-lived. They continue to expect inflation to decrease through 2023.
  • Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to hike 25bp, to 7.75%, but see the decision as a close call between a 25bp hike and a hold-and-monitor coupled with hawkish signals that the MPC would be open to resuming tightening if warranted. A 25bp hike may be followed by language and forward guidance suggesting the potential end of the tightening cycle.
    • In their assessment, a 25bp hike would be warranted given a backdrop where (1) inflation surprised to the upside in Dec and remains highly inertial; (2) core ex-food & energy and services inflation continues to track uncomfortably above target; (3) the FOMC signaled a tightening cycle with a higher peak rate; (4) Governor Velarde recently highlighted the robustness of private consumption and credit, and stated that inflation is expected to decelerate visibly starting in June (previously in April); and (5) the domestic political and policy environment remains highly uncertain after former President Castillo’s removal from office prompted congress to extend the current legislative session through Jan 31 (originally set to expire last Dec) to debate constitutional amendments to reform the political system.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.