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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessCiti: How Much Higher (For Yields)?
Citi write “the rates sell-off continues as the market reconsiders early rate cut prospects across Fed/ECB/BoE, in line with our bearish tactical view”
- “Yesterday was UK-led thanks to the CPI surprise, taking 10yr gilts very close to 4.00% which we had said could be surpassed relatively quickly, and is also our latest 1Q24 average yield forecast.”
- “For Bunds, our new 1Q24 average yield forecast is 2.25%.”
- “Both express a view that the sell-off may have further to run near-term, but ultimately average around current levels to end-March.”
- “Taking Bunds as an example, if ECB cut pricing to June converges further towards the house view of 25bp, recent price action suggests 10yr Bunds may be dragged to 2.60-2.70% in yield terms.”
- “However, we expect growing de-coupling re: near-term rate cut prospects given: easing is likely just pushed out; the risk that the ECB waits too long and then has to start quickly; and still stable inflation risk premium. That, we think, limits the extent of a sustainable further sell-off from here.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.