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Citi Maintain Bearish Bias In OATs Vs. Iberian Paper In Light Of Political Developments

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Citi note that although weekend developments do not “threaten Macron’s presidency, the political uncertainty has risen sharply given the lack of any opinion polls”

  • They believe that “centrist seats in parliament look likely to fall compared to the current situation.”
  • they suggest that “for OATs, this might weigh on the confidence of the real money community, who have been the key buyer over recent weeks and helped support OATs around S&P’s rating downgrade.”
  • “Overall, this keeps us biased short in OATs vs PGBs and Bonos, currently expressed via 20yr OATs vs PGBs.”
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Citi note that although weekend developments do not “threaten Macron’s presidency, the political uncertainty has risen sharply given the lack of any opinion polls”

  • They believe that “centrist seats in parliament look likely to fall compared to the current situation.”
  • they suggest that “for OATs, this might weigh on the confidence of the real money community, who have been the key buyer over recent weeks and helped support OATs around S&P’s rating downgrade.”
  • “Overall, this keeps us biased short in OATs vs PGBs and Bonos, currently expressed via 20yr OATs vs PGBs.”