May 09, 2024 07:20 GMT
Citi On EU Index Inclusion Matters
BONDS
Citi note that “following the MSCI consultation announcement on the possible inclusion of EU in its government bond indices, EU bonds tightened by 2-4bp vs. swaps and 1-3bp vs. OATs.”
- “This has further added to the strong performance since a similar ICE announcement on 11 April.”
- “Whilst part of this could be explained by positioning (which is hard to quantify), the post-11 April price action suggests that inclusion could be worth 5-10bp.”
- “However, this can change very quickly depending on EU’s issuance plans for H224 and for 2025-26.”
- “If the EU is to complete NGEU by the end of 2026 (which is stipulated by the RRF Regulation), it has a lot of catching up to do: At the time of writing, EU countries have fulfilled only 18% of the targets and milestones required for RRF disbursements.”
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