MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 100BPS TO 12.25%

MNI BRIEF: US Budget Deficit $367B In Nov; FYTD Record $624B

MNI BRIEF: Former BOC Dep Beaudry Sees 2.75%-3% Rate In 2025

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: US NOV TREASURY BUDGET -$366.8B

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BTP Auction on Thursday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -1.42M TO 422.0M DEC 06 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Citi Remain Concerned About Overall Spending Post-MTBPS

SOUTH AFRICA
  • The FY23/24 main budget deficit widening was in line with Citi’s view that Treasury would publish something in the range of -4.5% to -5.0% of GDP, even though it is below their view that -5.1% is likely by the end of FY23/24.
  • They see the revenue underrun somewhat larger than the -R55bn in the MTBPS (driven by reduced mining sector profits and larger VAT refund payments), and also do not see only a R10bn overshoot as realistic when already YTD spending is growing 9.7% YoY.
  • Citi say it is a good thing that Treasury is more realistic, extending the inevitable SRD grant into 2024, but what happens with funding for Transnet and accounting treatment of Eskom remains unanswered. Then there is a plan to R15bn in FY24/25 via tax measures, but no details will be provided until the February 2024 Budget.
  • VAT and PIT are too sensitive, in Citi’s view, especially ahead of the Q2 2024 election, and if anything, CIT rates need to reduce to attract more investment and align with global standards.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.