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Citi Survey Points To 75bp BanRep Rate Cut In September

COLOMBIA
  • The recent Citi analyst survey indicated that a majority of analysts expect BanRep to step up the easing pace at its Sept 30 MPC meeting. 15 out of 24 analysts are looking for a 75bp cut to 10.0% next month, while nine expect BanRep to maintain a 50bp easing pace. The policy rate is seen reaching 8.50% by the end of this year and 5.875% by end-2025.
  • Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts were raised slightly to 1.64% for this year and 2.60% for next, while the end-2024 CPI inflation edged down 4bp to 5.66%. By contrast, the end-2025 CPI forecast rose by 5bp to 3.84%.
  • Scotiabank also expects a 75bp cut in September, noting that weak economic activity, the renewed downward trend in CPI inflation and significant increase in confidence of a Fed rate cut support the case for a step up in the easing pace next month.
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