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CitiBanamex Survey Downgrades 2022 GDP Forecast

MEXICO
  • The focus this week will be on inflation data from the US and Banxico’s first meeting/decision of the year, both scheduled for Thursday. USDMXN very narrow range from the open, just starting to edge through the 20.65 lows overnight.
  • Late Friday, Citi published results of biweekly analysts’ survey in email in which they downgraded 2022 year-end GDP as well as adjusting both 2022 and 2023 year-end rate forecasts higher.
    • Next rate move to be a 50 bps increase in Feb.
    • 2022 GDP cut to 2.20% from 2.50%, 2023 GDP held at 2.10%
    • Analysts see 2022 CPI at 4.4%
    • 2022 yr-end rate raised to 7.00% from 6.75%
    • 2023 yr-end rate raised to 7.25% from 7.00%
    • For reference, the results are the median forecast of about 30 analysts

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