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Civil Unrest Prompts Larger Q2 Growth Decline Than Expected

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia Q2 GDP falls 2.4% q/q; est. -1.2% - BBG
  • Colombia Q2 GDP rises 17.6% y/y; est. +18.5% - BBG
  • Colombia June economic activity rises 14.5% y/y; est. +14.6% - BBG
  • Delayed release for Colombian data - a disappointment relative to expectations: GDP misses by 0.9ppts on Y/Y and by 1.2ppts for the quarterly reading as civil unrest and a third wave of Covid-19 infections disrupted business activity.
  • Despite the minor disappointment, the backward looking data and an in-line print for June economic activity should still keep the probability of a September BanRep hike high.

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