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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORWAY
As noted earlier, Norway September inflation came in well below both consensus as well as the Norges Bank forecasts, with CPI at an unrounded rate of 3.34% Y/Y (4.0% cons; 4.2% NB) and CPI-ATE at 5.66% unrounded Y/Y (6.1% cons; 6.1% NB).
- Statistics Norway's monthly seasonally adjusted prints show the print is even more disinflationary: Sequential monthly SA CPI printed at -0.62% M/M (vs -0.08% NSA) and SA CPI-ATE was 0.16% M/M (vs 0.40% NSA).
- MNI's momentum indices saw CPI at 0.83% 3M/3M SAAR (vs 3.67% prior) and CPI-ATE at 4.78% 3M/3M SAAR (vs 6.15% prior).
- Today's print is encouraging for the Norges Bank, but we note that the fall in headline momentum was driven heavily by energy prices, while CPI-ATE will have also been helped by weaker food, alcohol and tobacco components.
- Markets will watch for any response in the bank's November 2nd policy statement, and any change in language around a hike that will "most probably" take place in December. October CPI follows on November 10th.
- NOK remains the G10 underperformer today due to the CPI print and weaker oil prices. EURNOK is ~0.9% higher while NOKSEK is ~0.8% lower. The Norway Dec23-Mar24 FRA rate is also 4bps lower today.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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