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Closer Look at Inflation Data Confirms View of Overall Mixed Print

SWITZERLAND DATA
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A closer look at the Swiss June CPI inflation data adds to the view that inflationary pressures in the individual services categories was rather mixed despite the headline and core miss. EUR/CHF initially spiked to 0.9756 on the softer headline release, however markets have faded the initial CHF weakness as the details show that goods inflation was a primary driver - less of a focus in recent SNB policy communications.

  • Services inflation 3M/3M SAAR 2.65% June vs 2.68% May - lowest value since January but still significantly above historical standards (M/M SAAR 2.5% vs 3.0% May)
  • Recreation and culture inflation pressure appeared to intensify in June: 3M/3M SAAR 6.2% vs 5.8% May (highest value in observation horizon; M/M SAAR spiked). Package holidays have contributed strongly here, however.
  • For the other services categories, sequential seasonally-adjusted measures were mixed: transport inflation was softer (driven by airfares), healthcare inflation also appeared softer, but communication printed firmer, and restaurants / hotels were unchanged from May.
  • Meanwhile, the headline miss seems to be rather driven by goods/imported products: import products -4.7% M/M SAAR vs -2.8% May (3M measure ticked up on base effect); goods -2.4% M/M SAAR vs -1.7% May.
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A closer look at the Swiss June CPI inflation data adds to the view that inflationary pressures in the individual services categories was rather mixed despite the headline and core miss. EUR/CHF initially spiked to 0.9756 on the softer headline release, however markets have faded the initial CHF weakness as the details show that goods inflation was a primary driver - less of a focus in recent SNB policy communications.

  • Services inflation 3M/3M SAAR 2.65% June vs 2.68% May - lowest value since January but still significantly above historical standards (M/M SAAR 2.5% vs 3.0% May)
  • Recreation and culture inflation pressure appeared to intensify in June: 3M/3M SAAR 6.2% vs 5.8% May (highest value in observation horizon; M/M SAAR spiked). Package holidays have contributed strongly here, however.
  • For the other services categories, sequential seasonally-adjusted measures were mixed: transport inflation was softer (driven by airfares), healthcare inflation also appeared softer, but communication printed firmer, and restaurants / hotels were unchanged from May.
  • Meanwhile, the headline miss seems to be rather driven by goods/imported products: import products -4.7% M/M SAAR vs -2.8% May (3M measure ticked up on base effect); goods -2.4% M/M SAAR vs -1.7% May.