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CNH: CNH Lags Broader USD Weakness, USD/CNH Still Above 20-day EMA

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USD/CNH spot tracks near 7.2450 in early Thursday dealings, close to session lows from Wednesday US trade (7.2422). CNH was up 0.17% for Wednesday's session, trailing broader USD index softness. The DXY fell 0.88%, the BBDXY index down 0.65%, as yen and NZD gains dominated the G10 space. USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.2452. The CNY CFETS basket tracker was down slightly to 100.17 (off 0.08%). 

  • For USD/CNH the 20-day EMA sits back close to 7.2160. Recent highs are at 7.2728.
  • Incoming US President Trump picked Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative. Greer has made hawkish comments around re-shaping the US-China trade relations.
  • Still, Wednesday delivered strong China onshore equity gains, up 1.74% for the CSI 300, back above 3900 in index terms. We have Dec China government meetings, which could deliver more stimulus measures. For CNH, the China to world equity ratio is still well off early Oct highs, but above pre stimulus lows from mid-Sep.
  • US yields were softer in US trade on Wednesday, ahead of the Thanksgiving break. US-CH yield differentials sit off recent highs, the 10yr spread back to +221bps, we were at +238bps in mid Nov. US yield trends will continue to dictate US-CH yield differentials
  • The local data calendar is empty until Saturday's Nov official PMI prints. The manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.2 (from 50.1 prior). The non-manufacturing PMI at 50.4 (prior 50.2). 
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USD/CNH spot tracks near 7.2450 in early Thursday dealings, close to session lows from Wednesday US trade (7.2422). CNH was up 0.17% for Wednesday's session, trailing broader USD index softness. The DXY fell 0.88%, the BBDXY index down 0.65%, as yen and NZD gains dominated the G10 space. USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.2452. The CNY CFETS basket tracker was down slightly to 100.17 (off 0.08%). 

  • For USD/CNH the 20-day EMA sits back close to 7.2160. Recent highs are at 7.2728.
  • Incoming US President Trump picked Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative. Greer has made hawkish comments around re-shaping the US-China trade relations.
  • Still, Wednesday delivered strong China onshore equity gains, up 1.74% for the CSI 300, back above 3900 in index terms. We have Dec China government meetings, which could deliver more stimulus measures. For CNH, the China to world equity ratio is still well off early Oct highs, but above pre stimulus lows from mid-Sep.
  • US yields were softer in US trade on Wednesday, ahead of the Thanksgiving break. US-CH yield differentials sit off recent highs, the 10yr spread back to +221bps, we were at +238bps in mid Nov. US yield trends will continue to dictate US-CH yield differentials
  • The local data calendar is empty until Saturday's Nov official PMI prints. The manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.2 (from 50.1 prior). The non-manufacturing PMI at 50.4 (prior 50.2).