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CHINA FX: CNH continues to edge back higher against the USD as the US session
progresses, prompting USD/CNH to print lows of 6.7711, but is yet to close the
opening gap as the Chinese delegation confirmed they are to enter negotiations
with their US counterparts on schedule, countering earlier reports that the
timetable was at risk.
-Nonetheless, CNY options markets are yet to improve. USD/CNY 1m risk reversals
hold near the highest levels since December last year (today's move has
comfortably been the biggest of 2019) amid a busy session for USD/CNY options.
Volumes are over twice the average, with CNY puts favoured over calls. Implied
vols have leapt in tandem, rallying close to the best levels of April as the
sharp move lower mid-month is reversed.
-Focus turns to the return of UK markets tomorrow (London is the largest
offshore trading centre for the CNH outside of Asia) and to see the Chinese
equity response to today's report denials. Chinese trade balance data becomes
pivotal now given it's increased political importance, with the data due on
Wednesday (no scheduled time). CPI and PPI data follows Thursday.