MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Maintains Softer Tone
Price Signal Summary – EUR Maintains Softer Tone
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent highs. MA studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Eurostoxx 50 futures are unchanged. The latest pullback appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch is 4929.62, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- EURUSD is in consolidation and maintains a softer tone, trading at its recent lows. Support at 1.1002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This level marks the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart. The break lower strengthens a bearish theme. USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. The latest pullback in AUDUSD highlights a short-term corrective cycle and for now, a bearish theme remains intact. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at 0.6752, would undermine a bullish theme.
- The latest short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started Oct 1. Tuesday’s reversal is for now, considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg.
- Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this undermines a recent bullish outlook. A continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Tone
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 3: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- RES 2: 1.1067/1144 20-day EMA / High Oct 1
- RES 1: 1.1037 50-Day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0976 @ 06:06 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 1.0951/45 Low Oct 4 / 61.8% of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 1.0881 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0778 Low Aug 1
EURUSD is in consolidation and maintains a softer tone, trading at its recent lows. Support at 1.1002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This level marks the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart. The break lower strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for weakness towards 1.0945 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1067, the 20-day EMA. First resistance is at 1.1037, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3305 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3206 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3093 @ 06:15 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 1.3060 Low Oct 7
- SUP 2: 1.3049 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following last week’s sell-off, and the pair continues to trade at its lows. Cable has breached support at the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA at 1.3112. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.3049, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3206, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8377 @ 06:43 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 0.8353/11 Low Oct 4 / 1 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The Oct 3 rally in EURGBP highlights a possible reversal. Note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. For now, moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode position - this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support is at 0.8311, the Oct 1 low. Key resistance is 0.8464, the Sep 11 high and a reversal trigger. First resistance to watch is 0.8434, Oct 23 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 148.58 @ 06:55 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 145.26 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 149.39, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish outlook. Initial firm support is 145.26, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.57 High Oct 7
- PRICE: 162.95 @ 07:11 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 160.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains and remains above the 50-day EMA, at 161.61. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels would highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals are bearish and gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower and a resumption of bearish price action would open 154.42, Aug 5 low and the bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6889 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 0.6804 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6737 @ 07:53 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 0.6715 Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: 0.6646 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
The latest pullback in AUDUSD highlights a short-term corrective cycle and for now, a bearish theme remains intact. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at 0.6752, would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3791 High Aug 7
- RES 3: 1.3745 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3683 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3675 High Oct 8
- PRICE: 1.3661 @ 07:59 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 1.3556 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 4: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
USDCAD traded higher Tuesday, confirming an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. The move higher this week has resulted in a break of resistance at 1.3647, the Sep 19 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level signals a possible reversal. Sights are on 1.3683 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3556, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 137.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 133.95/134.38 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 133.58 @ 05:47 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 133.33 Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: 133.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 132.25 Low Jul 29
Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this undermines a recent bullish outlook. A continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. This would open 132.65, the Sep 2 low. Initial resistance is at 134.38, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Clears Support
- RES 4: 120.650 High Oct 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 119.870 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 119.350/119.627 High Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.160 @ 05:55 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 118.990 Low Oct 7
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Bobl futures are trading at their recent lows. The reversal from the Oct 1 high, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The contract has traded through a number of short-term retracement points and has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open 118.580, the Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is 119.627, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.225/335 High Oct 3 / 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 7
- RES 1: 106.970 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.790 @ 06:01 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 106.740 Low Sep 18
- SUP 2: 106.712 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A short-term bearish threat in Schatz futures remains intact following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and breached 106.815, the Sep 18 low. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement to 106.712, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 106.970, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 100.00 High Sep 23
- RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 98.51 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 96.93/98.11 High Oct 7 / Low Sep 2
- PRICE: 96.47 @ Close Oct 8
- SUP 1: 96.20 Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: 96.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. 96.23, the 1.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing, has been pierced. This exposes 96.00. Initial firm resistance is seen at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Has Breached The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 121.67/122.62 High Oct 3 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.48 @ Close Oct 8
- SUP 1: 120.17 Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. However, a short-term bearish threat exists for now, following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. This move down highlights a corrective cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower opens 120.17, the Sep 19 low and the next important support. A break of this support would expose 119.58, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 122.62, the Oct 1 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5048.00/5106.00 High Oct 1 / High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4970.00 @ 06:20 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 4929.62 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures are unchanged. The latest pullback appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch is 4929.62, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Key resistance and bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: 5854.15 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5785.75 @ 07:22 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 5742.64/5724.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5674.40 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent highs. MA studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. Initial support to watch is 5742.64, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. Key support lies at 5674.40 the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Short-Term Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $86.86 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $77.86 @ 06:54 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: $74.89 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded sharply higher last week and again Monday. The rally extends the bull leg that started Sep 9 and suggests that Tuesday's pullback is - for now - a correction. A resumption of gains would open $81.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $83.02, the Jul 18 high. Initial firm support is $74.89, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would be seen as an early reversal signal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $82.59 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $78.46 - High Oct 8
- PRICE: $73.90 @ 07:16 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: $71.41 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started Oct 1. Tuesday’s reversal is for now, considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $71.41, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2697.9 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2615.6 @ 07:18 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: $2615.7/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 3: $2547.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
The latest short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2690.2, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2615.7, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $31.778/32.963 - High Oct 8 / 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $30.442 @ 08:12 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: $30.153 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.036 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. Attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, at $30.153. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on $32.963, the Oct 4 high.