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CNH Outperforms USD Rebound, Q1 GDP/March Activity Figures On Tap

CNH

CNH finished weaker for Monday's session, losing 0.14% against the USD. USD/CNH closed in NY just under 6.8830, and sits slightly higher in early dealings today. The China currency still outperformed broader USD indices, with the BBDXY up 0.40%, the DXY +0.54%, as US yields gained further momentum on better survey data. The CNY NEER rose 0.32% for Monday's session (J.P. Morgan index) to be back at 125.49.

  • Today the focus will rest on Q1 GDP and the March monthly activity data outcomes. The market looks for improvement across the board as the economy emerged from lockdown. We outlined market expectations here.
  • For the monthly indicators, given the continued outperformance of the non-manufacturing/service related sectors this may aid consumption related activity more, relative to manufacturing.
  • The Citi China EASI has eased back off recent cyclical highs. The China currency hasn't benefited relative to the USD on this improved data backdrop, with broader USD/yield shifts dominating. Still, this backdrop has likely aided cross performance and helped moved the NEER up from recent lows.
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