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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that China Q1 GDP and March monthly activity indicators print tomorrow. The consensus looks for improvement across the board relative to previous outcomes, as the economy emerged from lockdowns late last year.
- For Q1 GDP the consensus is 2.0% q/q (prior 0.0%, range 1.0%-2.8%), in y/y terms it is 4.0% (prior 2.9%, range 2.2%-4.9%). The Citi China EASI is not too far off fresh cyclical highs and consistent with a GDP pick up, see the first chart below.
Fig 1: Citi China EASI Versus China Y/Y GDP
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- In terms of the monthly activity indicators, there is arguably more certainty around the consumer/services side given recent PMI prints, where non-manufacturing outperformed manufacturing.
- Still, for IP y/y the forecast is 4.4% (prior 1.3% from Dec last yr, range 2.2%-5.6%).
- Retail sales is estimated at 7.5% y/y (prior -1.8% from Dec last yr, range 4.0% -11.0%). The second chart below is the y/y print against the services PMI.
- Fixed asset investment is forecast at 5.7% ytd y/y (prior 5.5%), while property investment is forecast at -4.7% ytd y/y (prior -5.7%). Property sales for March are also out, with no consensus but the prior was 3.5% ytd y/y.
- The jobless rate is forecast to improve to 5.5% from 5.6%.
Fig 2: China Services PMI Versus Retail Sales Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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