CNH Steadies, Mostly Weaker Trends Elsewhere

USD/Asia pairs have been mixed today. CNH has stabilized, moving back to 6.9550. PHP is back to flat after weakening beyond 56.00 in early trade. USD/THB is higher, with onshore equities down ahead of Sunday's election. Still to come today is Indian CPI and IP prints. Monday next week delivers the China 1yr MLF outcome, no change expected. Thailand Q1 GDP is out, along with Indonesian trade figures.

• USD/CNH spot has tracked modestly softer today, bucking the generally supported USD trend seen elsewhere in the region. We were last close to 6.9550. Onshore equities are tracking lwoer, the CSI 330 off nearly 1% at the time of writing. A meeting between senior US/China officials in Vienna Wed-Thur of this week has aided sentiment. Onshore 10yr yields are slightly higher, back above 2.70%.
• 1 month USD/KRW has stayed mostly elevated today. We did get above 1335 briefly, but now sit back at 1331/32. Local equities are weaker, while the government detailed a cautious growth backdrop. The authorities will provide consumption vouchers in order to aid the growth outlook.
• USD/PHP broke above 56.00 in early trade, getting to a high of 56.015. However, we have steadily moved lower since then, last back to 55.75, basically unchanged for the session. The 200-day MA sits at 56.105, and we saw official rhetoric pick up around FX levels the last time we broke above 56.00. Next week's BSP meeting is expected to deliver on hold rates, at least according to the Bloomberg consensus. The meeting is next Thursday.
• USD/IDR opened up firmer getting to 14765, which is right around May highs. We have pared gains somewhat, last just under 14750. Note late April highs sit around 14925, while on the downside, we haven't spent much time sub 14700, while early May lows come in under 14600. Cross-asset headwinds persist for IDR. Local equities are now 3% off late April highs, with the benchmark continuing to track lower today (-0.50%). Yesterday saw $61.8mn in net equity outflows, while Wednesday saw -$189.2mn in bond outflows.
• USD/THB has continued to recover in the first part of trading. The pair back to 33.90/95, +0.55% on yesterday's closing levels (33.725). This is line with broader USD/Asia gains and higher beta FX struggling in terms of the majors. There may be some resistance at the 34.00 round figure level, while the simple 50-day MA is not too far away at 34.095. Sunday will see Thai election, although a clear winner may not be immediately clear after the result. The two front runners, the populist Pheu Thai and progressive Move Forward parties, will likely face opposition in the Senate in terms of forming government, with the Senate likely to side with the military.
• USD/INR prints at 82.10/15, the pair is ~0.1% firmer in early trade. Equity inflows have been strong in May to date, there has been a total of ~$1.913bn net of Foreign Equity Investment. On the wires today we have April CPI, which is expected to moderate to 4.76% Y/Y from 5.66% in March which would be the slowest rise in CPI since Oct 2021 giving the RBI room to keep rates on hold. Also on the wires is March Industrial Production, which is expected at 3.2% Y/Y the prior read was 5.6% Y/Y.
• USD/MYR prints at 4.4700/50, the pair is ~0.3% firmer today. We now sit at the highest level since mid-March and USD/MYR is ~1% firmer this week. Palm Oil futures fell ~2.6% yesterday, however losses have been pared this morning with the contract up ~0.5%. Q1 GDP printed at 5.6% Y/Y above the expected 5.1%. The BoP Current Account Balance was MYR4.3bn, narrower than the expected MYR21.5bn.