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CNH: Surge Continues, RSI Turns Overbought

NZD

NZD/CNH re-opened on a firmer footing today, as familiar RBNZ matters gave the kiwi a fresh shot in the arm. The rate soared through Nov 30, 2018 high of CNH4.7846 yesterday and operates at levels last seen in 2017. Today's gains allowed it to challenge the round figure/76.4% recovery of the 2017 - 2020 sell-off at CNH4.8000/4.8017, but the pair has failed to make a sustained break above there so far. It last trades at CNH4.7946, 205 pips better off on the day.

  • In case you missed it, NZ Finance Ministry forced the RBNZ to assess the impact of its financial and monetary decisions on housing prices, as part of the amended MPC remit.
  • NZD/CNH is nearing the ceiling of an ascending channel drawn off Oct 10, 2020 low. The floor of this channel provided a springboard last week, as the rate bounced off there, starting its current winning streak.
  • Yesterday's intraday rally came after the rate charted a Doji candlestick on Tuesday, indicating market indecision.
  • In the course of yesterday's move, bulls managed to force a break above the mid-point of the rate's all-time range, located at CNH4.7850.
  • The RSI is now above the 70 threshold, suggesting that NZD/CNH is overbought. A pullback under this level would constitute a bearish signal.
  • A clean breach of CNH4.8000/4.8017 and the nearby channel top at CNH4.8123 would give bulls a green light for targeting Sep 20, 2017 high of CNH4.8817. Conversely, losses past Feb 23 low of CNH4.7455 would shift focus to the channel floor/61.8% retracement of the 2017 - 2020 slide at CNH4.6318/4.6272.

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