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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
USD/CNH sits near 7.1225 in early Friday dealings. The pair couldn't get under 7.1200 through Thursday trade, with yen a notable outperformer in the G10 space. CNH edged higher against the USD for Thursday's session, but still lost 1.63% for the month of October. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.1180. The CNY CFETS basket edged a little higher on Thursday, up 0.10% to 99.765. This index was comfortably higher in October as the yuan outperformed broader USD gains.
- For spot USD/CNH we have the 20 and 50-day EMAs nearby at 7.1160/70. The 100-day is close to 7.1460, with the earlier break higher this week through this resistance point proving false.
- USD/CNH 1 week vol continues to surge, last near 13.5% for implieds. This is closing in on multi year highs around 14%, see the chart below. This comes ahead of next week's US election, where a Trump victory is generally seen as quite bearish yuan in terms of the tariff/trade outlook.
- Elsewhere, China home sales rose in y/y terms for Oct, the first positive gain in 2024 (per BBG). This is showing some of the positive effects of the recent stimulus/easing measures. The CSI 300 real estate index finished down for Oct, but this followed a 35.5% gain in Sep.
- Today on the data front, we have the Caixin manufacturing PMI for Oct. The market consensus is for a 49.7 outcome, versus prior 49.3. recall yesterday's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, the first expansion month since April.
Fig 1: USD/CNH 1 Week Vols Close To Multi Year Highs
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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