CNH Weakens, KRW & PHP Outperform

Asian FX trends have been mixed again. USD/CNH has mostly traded higher, as rising covid case numbers weigh on risk appetite. KRW, THB and PHP have performed better though. Still to come is Taiwan trade and inflation figures. Tomorrow, China inflation figures are out, along with the South Korean unemployment rate.

• USD/CNH is higher but has found selling resistance above 7.2500. The pair was last close to 7.2460, around +0.20% above NY closing levels. Onshore spot is also up, but is down from earlier session highs, last close to 7.2400. China equities have fallen, while domestic daily covid case numbers have hit a fresh 6 month high. This is likely to dampen sentiment around the re-opening trade, at least from a near term standpoint.
• The won has outperformed. 1 month USD/KRW is down a further 0.40% from NY closing levels, last at 1386/87, although nearly touched 1384 in early trade. Local equities continue to power on, up a further 1% today. This puts the Kospi above its 100-day EMA, which has been a resistance point going back to September 2021.
• Spot USD/TWD is trying to break back below 32.00, but hasn't made a convincing move yet. Onshore equities are also firmer for the Taiex, in line with tech outperformance since the start of the week. Coming up is Taiwan trade and inflation figures. Export growth is expected to slow further (-6% y/y).
• Spot USD/IDR trades -30 figs at 15,678 as we type, with bears looking for a fall through Oct 28 low of 15,523 and bulls keeping an eye on the 16,000 mark. Indonesia's CDS premium has tumbled since approaching cyclical highs in late-Sep/mid-Oct and last sits at 122.4bp. Foreign investors were net buyers of $41.07mn in local equities. The Jakarta Comp posted gains but has already halved yesterday's gains this morning.
• Spot USD/THB is above early session lows, but still down for the session, last at 37.355 (against 37.225). The simple 50-day MA comes in at 37.3765. Foreign investors snapped up a net $63.34mn in Thai stocks Monday, extending the streak of daily inflows going back to Oct 20. The SET index gave back its initial gains after re-testing its 200-DMA.
• Spot USD/PHP has declined and last operates -0.41 at 58.188, with bears looking for a retreat towards the 50-DMA, which intersects at 58.040. Philippine foreign reserves expanded to $94.1bn last month from the revised $93.0bn. ANZ estimated that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas spent less than $1bn on interventions in the FX spot market during that month, the smallest amount since April, but there may have been more intervention through forwards.